One of the most common questions I get asked when out preaching and visiting is...
What do you think will happen in Ukraine and when will the war end?
I am no expert. I read, I listen to friends. I know this is a complex matter with many moving parts. The protraction of this brings fatigue to some in their desire to get news. I am surprised by how little true unbiased coverage exists on a daily basis. Specialist sources are way more helpful. This is my take today, in a hope that it helps someone get some things up to date / saves you some time.
As Vladimir Putin ghosts past 1,000,000 lives lost in his "military operation", on day 1237 of the full scale invasion he continues to laugh at humanity whilst heading towards for the ultimate reckoning with his maker. Up until now he has bargained on his smoke screens working to evade any retribution for illegally annexing Crimea, Donbas, and poisoning citizens on UK soil. It has worked with many on a temporary level, as disinformation, chaos in Western politics, egotistic governments have sought their own agendas.
However, I spot some significant things starting to move.
1) There are signs of desperation in warfare. The use of chemical weapons in trenches against Ukrainians seems a last ditch resort by Russian troops for land grabs. In truth when ground has been taken, Ukraine has taken it back fairly swiftly with the loss of many Russian lives. In this war of attrition, inordinately high tragic cost of life have only seen the boundary lines move only by fractions. It is akin to world war 1 basic man to man combat. Moscow has bargained on a 2-3 day failed operation now being covered by a war of attrition where they hope to last one more day than everyone else. Because no land is being taken, and high causality costs are rising, gas and chemical warfare has been resorted to in order to try to convince the Russian public and hierarchy that things are still moving in the right direction for them.
However, if this becomes more the pattern, eyes will be taken off the "clinical"approach of technical drone and missile warfare. There is something apparently sanitised about a soldier far away controlling missiles and drones with a joystick, of course the reality is anything but neat or clear, it remains evil. Nothing about chemical warfare though leaves people disaffected, there is no "good" angle. Whilst the Kremlin has no scruples with going down this road, I believe many in the West will, and one wonders what the true feelings in Russia and its international partners will be when this new reality hits their families.
2) There are signs of political fragility on both sides. There has been a lightweight approach in general from the US in recent months. Another White white house ultimatum makes Putin smile as he listens to Trump. The first 30 day ultimatum had no effect, but maybe a 50 day one will do it? This is just extension time to survive and regroup. China reiterated yesterday that they cannot let Russia lose. Is this rhetoric for the American government or the true state of affairs? Will China really raid the piggy bank to fight over Europe and get entangled in Putin's head games? Should the U.S. change its tack with teeth and go back all in, things of course may significantly move to a swifter resolution.
On the other side Europe (for all the discussions) remains essentially an economic collaboration not a military one. Changing the amount of GDP on military sending in synchronised defiance, has yet to change the practical day to day reality in the field, and dealing with such a dictator who responds to force is unlikely to. However the movements of the last few months show that there are now enough F16's (a's and b's) to be a game changer. Should key European politicians speak up to make serious moves to mobilise what is in place, the USA approach would be more irrelevant than in the past. Experts in the matter tell me defending against a grouping of F16's is a very different prospect to individual or comparatively more vulnerable isolated sorties for isolated missions (some of which have been shot down).
What seems more significant over the last few days are the level of fatalities at the upper rows of the Kremlin as people jostle for succession, and fight over the remaining scraps following monetary hardship and sanctions. A guy falling out of a window or appearing in false suicide is nothing new, but the step up in regularity, relational chaos, and timings are. The last street fighter standing is slowly losing his inner circle. Yes, people will sycophantically sidle up to replace the deceased, but with every round of promotion that takes place, the stakes are also raised. Putin is willing to lose 1,000,000 souls, but can he withstand row after row of his inner generals and non military business hierarchy being lost by friendly fire. The economic (corrupt inner circle) leadership structures are under severe pressure. Will one of the vulnerable not at some point call out this in self protection and lead others to push back? Add to that the nature of global allies he now calls his own friends. Each have their wars and agendas. He has not assembled a group for a dinner party, but is playing Russian roulette with psychos, all of whom are desperate for survival.
Timing
Without doubt, Trump coming to power and his approach which handed Putin all the negotiating cards and gave unprecedented credance, delayed the end of the conflict by years not days. At that juncture Russia was failing in its attempts. Moral encouragement was handed on a plate, Putin was made to look like a player again, a leader, an influencer and despots the world over gathered to be supportive. Since then nothing of note has changed in that dynamic but much more away from the Whitehouse has. The step up in world conflicts (Middle East) and fragility of world peace has produced a nervousness that finally has woken up peace loving democratic nations to the issues. We are but a finger click away from world war 3. Some would say the prelude has already started. No count China has a key role in world peace or fragility. A lot depends in the next few days on how far China will back a despot losing the plot.
Possible Game changers?
- RELEASE THE POUNDS
300 billion still sits in frozen and confiscated assets. Should Starmer lift his eyes off domestic affairs and release this for Ukrainian forces, it would reduce the significance of USA involvement. Yes a significant amount is held in Europe, but when governments are slow to spend their own money defending Europe this becomes an increasing likelihood.
- COORDINATE THE RESOURCES THAT ARE READY TO GO.
Aerial mobilisation. Should the arranged military aircraft get the green light in a coordinated effort, the timeline for the end of the conflict could be dramatically reduced. F16's will do the job they are designed to, and antiquated MiGS and the like will not fare so well on the battle ground as they do rolling past on a polished trolly over the pavements of Red-Square. The Russian air force (with a large percentage of reservists) are poorly trained. Any help from its allies is similar or considerably worse (North Korea). The fear in aerial combat has always been a denial that NATO are fronting up to the Kremlin, The blurring of allied combinations and collaborations suggests however that something is being prepared.
- EXPOSE THE BRUTALITY, INHUMANITY and ANTIQUITY OF PUTIN'S TRENCH TACTICS.
- Putin has resorted to this because he is being wiped out by the most basic trench warfare. Fighting with shovels has no future, badly trained military fresh from prison will not last long.
- When the penny drops in the West that this (chemical and biological weapons) is now the normal modus operandi of an inhumane psycho, and that we are next in Europe, this conflict will come to a swifter conclusion.
- Relative economic comfort has become such an Idol in the west that we do not feel the pain of others we are cushioned from this in our cosy ghettos, to the extent that we see no "need" to increase military preparation to a realistic level. I believe this will change if the present realities of war (which have breached new lows in the trenches) make it onto our glorious TV sets in the clarity of UHD. The living room will not be a comfortable place to be any longer, for any MP looking to keep their occupation, and procrastination will seem less appealing. Up until now the Salisbury attack was viewed as isolated or confined, I wonder if that perspective is now coming to an end. I cannot imagine this lasting if news emerges of preparation for national service of our young people or mobilisation of forces in Baltics and Poland escalates.