It's been a busy week in Eastern European news, but significant events have gone the way of democracy and freedom. Undoubtedly things are ramping up and the admittance that we are at defacto war with Russia (even if that war is a collective fusion of sabotages and cyber threats) by the ex chief of MI5 shows the significance of all events in this arena. Of most note I think are two events. Both show that European intellegence is on the front foot.
1. Modova votes for democracy.
As Moscow does all it can to sabatage democracy in Europe, the decisive action has been taken by the Moldovan population, standing up for their ability to decide for themselves.
2. Ukraine's long range missile capability has gone from zero to one of the best in the world. The success is so significant that you have to assume intellegence forces are very effectively working together to support Ukraine's efforts, and are well ahead of the game. The impact that this has had on Russia's energy situation is more strategic than the scattergun approach of Moscow towards Europe and Ukraine.
Put the two things together and you have Russia taking steps to conserve energy, halting oil exports because of the critical energy situation. This is a game changer. The signficant export funds that have resisted sanctions are drying up, the wagons are circling, and will continue to come closer now there is no other source of finance to fuel military. Other global partners with Russia will not give away their weaponary for free. This is a house of cards built on self preservation.
The closure of energy production is becoming prolonged not temporary. Combine this with over a 1000 Russian soldiers losing their lives each day, a monthly toll of over 30,000 and a tightening supply line soon has its impact on the options given to the Russian frontline. It is hard for the Russian army to maintain gains and fight on such a wide, unsystematic and protracted frontline. Add to this the fact that the winter is coming and the Russian population may feel this more keenly now than before. A new conscription effort will not be popular in such an envronement. Last time enfordced conscription occurred 700,000 tried to leave the country. People have remained somewhat supportive of Mr Putin if it is good for them, but the situation is starting to look much more precarious. The cause of all this clearly has its roots in Putin's decision making, to go into Ukraine and occupy it over" within a few days of Feb 2022.
The worst population areas hit are those occupied areas near to Southern Russia where refineries and supply have been hardest hit. Those under draconian occupation may revault against such a shrinking and deshevolled army in areas like Crimea as queues continue to elongate at fuel stations and the clock rewinds to memories of historic austerity circumstances under previous oppression.
Contrast this with the new and gaining solidarity in Europe, the unrestricted use of long range weapons seeminly having the go ahead from USA. All of the events of the last few weeks (political, military, and intellegence) seemed to have achieved a greater unity in Europe, and reduced the potential remaining pockets of soviet influence like Transnistria. Whether USA will increase its spending and support for Ukraine is less predictable, but the trajectory we are on suggests that this may will be the innevitable conclusion on the road we are travelling.
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